The UK's net employment balance, a measure of how many employers expect to grow staff versus cut it, sits at just +9, close to the lowest reading since the pandemic. Only 26% of employers expect to increase staffing over the next quarter. It's tempting to read that as permission to wait. The businesses pulling ahead right now aren't waiting for the number to improve, they're treating a stuck market as the moment to move, precisely because so few of their competitors will.
Waiting for confidence is still a decision
Nobody frames "we'll hire once things feel more certain" as a choice, but it is one, and it has a cost that doesn't show up until later: the role stays unfilled, the work piles onto whoever's left, and by the time confidence does return, so does every other business that was waiting too, all competing for the same shrinking pool of candidates at once. It's the same trap covered in why UK hiring confidence hit a record low, and why moving anyway made sense, just from the other side: the cost of not moving.
What the cautious market is protecting you from
Not much, if you're building the right way. The caution baked into that +9 balance reflects real pressure: business optimism has fallen from 51% to 38% this year alone, wage growth is outpacing revenue, UK SMEs hiring less but paying more, uncertainty nobody can plan around perfectly. But that pressure applies hardest to businesses adding UK headcount at UK wage inflation. It applies far less to businesses building capacity through a model where the cost is agreed upfront and the risk profile looks nothing like a traditional hire.
The advantage of moving while the market's stuck
Fewer businesses hiring means less competition for the candidates who are available, in a market some analysts already describe as turning a corner on hiring, however slowly. Founders who build now aren't betting on confidence returning quickly. They're making sure they're not the ones scrambling to hire everyone else waited to hire, all at once, when it does.
A net balance of +9 describes what most employers are doing. It doesn't have to describe what you do. The businesses still building through a stuck market are the ones who won't be starting from scratch when it finally turns.
FAQ
What does the net employment balance measure?
It's the difference between the share of employers expecting to increase staff and the share expecting to decrease it. A reading of +9 means hiring intentions are only barely positive, close to the weakest level in years.
Is it risky to hire when confidence is this low?
It's riskier to assume everyone else's caution applies equally to your business. The pressure driving low confidence, mainly cost, hits UK direct hiring hardest, and less if your hiring route isn't exposed to the same wage inflation.
Won't hiring conditions improve if I just wait?
Possibly, but when they do, every business that waited will be competing for the same candidates at the same time, which usually makes hiring harder, not easier.
What's driving the low confidence figure?
Mostly cost pressure and economic uncertainty rather than falling demand. Most SME leaders still expect their revenue to grow this year, they're just cautious about adding headcount to deliver it.
How do you build a team without adding to that same cost pressure?
By choosing a hiring route with a fixed, predictable cost rather than one exposed to the same wage growth driving the caution in the first place.
Sources
The No Compromise Newsletter
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