The October 2024 Budget raised employer National Insurance to 15% and cut the point where you start paying it from £9,100 to £5,000 a year. It came in from April 2025, and many founders did not price it in until it hit. This year's Budget lands on Wednesday, 28 October 2026, and until the Chancellor sits down, nobody outside the Treasury knows what's in it. That's not a reason to wait. It's the reason to plan now.
What we know
The date is confirmed: 28 October 2026. A business rates cut for pubs and clubs and a new trader register have been flagged. Personal allowance thresholds and social care funding are reportedly under discussion. Nothing on employer National Insurance or the minimum wage is confirmed yet, though we've already flagged what the pencilled-in 2027 living wage rise means for your budget, and none of it is official until Budget day itself. Treat anything else as speculation, worth watching, not worth planning around as fact.
Why founders got caught out last time
CIPD's Winter 2025/26 Labour Market Outlook (fieldwork 18 December to 17 January) found that 74% of employers believe their employment costs will increase because of the Employment Rights Act, alongside the lowest hiring confidence on record outside the pandemic.
The businesses that got hurt hardest weren't the ones with the tightest budgets. They were the ones that had built their cost assumptions around a single, fixed headcount model with no flexibility to absorb a shock.
Building a Budget-proof team
Know your true, fully-loaded cost per role before Budget day, not after, the kind of role-by-role audit worth running every quarter, not just before Q4. Model what a further employer National Insurance increase would do to your numbers, using using the 2025 rise as your worked example. And weigh how much of your team is fixed cost with no flexibility to flex down, versus how much can scale with demand rather than against it.
If you're planning a Q4 hire, price it two ways: one assuming current costs hold, one assuming a further shock. Whichever structure survives both is the one worth committing to, because a bad Q4 decision costs a lot more than a delayed one.
FAQ
When is the UK Autumn Budget 2026?
Wednesday, 28 October 2026.
What happened to employer costs after the October 2024 Budget?
The October 2024 Budget raised employer National Insurance from 13.8% to 15% and cut the threshold at which employers start paying it from £9,100 to £5,000 a year, from April 2025. Many founders didn't fully price it in until it hit.
What's already confirmed for this Budget?
Details remain unconfirmed until Budget day itself. A business rates cut for pubs and clubs and a new trader register have been flagged, but no employer National Insurance or minimum wage changes are confirmed yet.
How can a small business hedge against Budget uncertainty?
By building in flexible capacity that isn't fixed to a single payroll structure, so a cost shock doesn't force an immediate, reactive headcount decision.
Should hiring be delayed until after the Budget?
Not if the role is already costing you in lost output. The smarter move is pricing the role under more than one cost scenario now, so the decision doesn't have to wait for Budget day.
Sources
The No Compromise Newsletter
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